Thursday, March 19, 2009

Inter-Galactic Memo
To: All Personnel
Fr: W. Leavitt Crypto-Planetologist
Re: Malthusism . . . again

Food and energy shortages will create 'perfect storm', says Prof John Beddington
Here we go again. This is the headline in the UK Telegraph today. Professor Beddington is predicting doom and gloom over yet another resource-crisis.
The demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof Beddington predicts.
He gives us until 2030 before the ceiling collapses.
Demand for food and energy will jump 50 per cent by 2030 and for fresh water by 30 per cent, as the global population tops 8.3 billion, he is due to tell a conference in London.
This is exactly what Thomas Malthus told the British Government in the early 1800’s. His theory is famous and is being proven wrong consistently. The idea simply will not die. Basically, both Malthus and his latest acolyte, Beddington, preach the same gospel; that rising populations will always outstrip our ability to grow food, find potable water and mine resources. And yet, since the industrial revolution, the exact opposite has consistently occurred. None of these prophets of doom—and there have been a lot of them—have ever taken into consideration the other side of the coin. Only R.B. Fuller had bothered to do that, and his conclusions have proven accurate since the thirties. They are this: Humans will always, through innovation and discovery, find ways to be more efficient in all they do. His thesis is that as organisms, our role in the universe is order, organization, which is anti-entropic and allows us to continually do ever-more with ever-less. Moore’s law is the perfect example; every 18 months integrated circuits go through another revolution, doubling the number of transistors, increasing speed and efficiency, and dropping in price. During Malthus’s time one farmer could feed about ten people. Today—in the First World, one farmer feeds thousands, in the States its hundreds of thousands. The planet has enormous stores of fresh water—we just have to have the will to go after it. We plant more trees than we harvest every year, worldwide. And on and on. Fuller does not abolish the many challenges we face any more that Malthus predicts our demise from them, but the fact is, as a species, we face them and are geniuses at overcoming them.
There are things that could destroy us, destroy life. Catastrophic events beyond our control, like errant comets and gamma ray bursts within a thousand light years. (but they would have to be aimed right at us) Political posturing, bickering, and partisanship can certainly do it, but lack of resources never will. We have the whole solar system to exploit, and yes, that is the correct word—look it up. Nuclear holocaust will not do it—there are not enough bombs in the world to destroy human life, much less all life, despite the continuing rhetoric contrary to that opinion. One major volcanic eruption has more destructive force than the entire arsenal of nuclear weapons. And personally, I don’t think radical changes in the global climate will ever destroy us either. It could get bad, change things, kill millions, but we’d survive and eventually thrive again.
Despite centuries of being proven wrong, the naysayers like Malthus and Ehrlich and their ilk still insist on spouting their silly nonsense, and they make names for themselves and often lots of money from it. But the human race prevails. The human experience continues to validate itself, despite everything we try that screws things up. Think positive. Be reasonable. Be a good influence in your sphere and husband the resources for which you are responsible. If we all do that we will create a veritable paradise. And we will do it without having to compromise our standards of living—maybe our willful pursuit of hedonistic pleasure, but that won’t be a bad thing, will it?

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